I’ve had a great couple of days this week meeting some really interesting new people. One of them was a tech entrepreneur who sold his business for over £100m. The other is building his agency and I met them to discuss adding self-employment to their model.

I also got to spend some time with two business friends to discuss AI and the future of agency.

Meeting these four different people has led me to consider the future and what it will mean for big businesses and small ones. I’ve touched on this topic before but I don’t really think that the industry is considering these topics enough given what is happening outside of the industry.

The 4 Quadrants

The rapid rise of AI presents both an existential threat and a massive opportunity for estate agencies of all sizes. Whether a business thrives or collapses in the face of AI-driven disruption depends on two key factors: scale (volume of data and transactions) and decision-making speed.

The attached quadrant model categorizes estate agencies into four groups based on these factors: Winners, Collaborators, Acquired, and Dead. Let’s explore what this means for both large corporations and SME agencies, and what strategic choices they must make to secure their futures.

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The Quadrants Explained

The four quadrants in the model are based on two dimensions:

1. Scale: Agencies with a high volume of transactions and data have more opportunities to leverage AI effectively. Small agencies, however, may struggle to access and utilise AI at the same level.
2. Decision-Making Speed: Fast-moving agencies can rapidly integrate AI, automate tasks, and adjust their business models. Slow-moving agencies risk falling behind due to inertia and bureaucracy.

These two factors create four distinct categories:

• Winners (High Scale, Fast Decisions)
• Collaborators (Low Scale, Fast Decisions)
• Acquired (High Scale, Slow Decisions)
• Dead (Low Scale, Slow Decisions)

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Winners: The AI-Powered Giants

(Large agencies that embrace AI and move fast)

These agencies have the scale, resources, and agility to implement AI effectively. They can afford to invest in AI-driven customer service, predictive analytics, and smart CRM integrations.

What They Should Do:

• Automate operations aggressively: AI should be handling lead generation, customer follow-ups, and transaction processing.
• Use data strategically: Large agencies sit on enormous datasets that can fuel better market predictions, personalized recommendations, and automated pricing strategies.
• Build teams to monitor and adapt AI innovations: This isn’t a hit and hope strategy. Lots of refinements must and should be made with split testing happening at scale and in real time.
• Encourage a culture of innovation: Leadership must reward experimentation and quick adaptation to ensure AI integration doesn’t get stuck in corporate bureaucracy.

Examples:

• Agencies that deploy fully integrated AI-powered CRMs to allow actions to be executed within the CRM.

These businesses will dominate because they wield AI as a force multiplier.

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Collaborators: The Nimble Adaptors

(Small agencies that move fast and leverage partnerships)

Small estate agencies don’t have the same data scale as the ‘Winners,’ but they compensate with agility. Unlike large corporations burdened with slow decision-making, SMEs can quickly implement new AI tools, experiment, and pivot their business models.

What They Should Do:

• Work together: Groups like the Property Academy (which I am a member of), encourage agents to work together to solve problems. We will need to go beyond this and collaborate and building and monitoring the deployment of AI systems into SME businesses at scale.
• Leverage third-party AI tools: Instead of building custom AI, collaborate with proptech startups or use AI services like OpenAI, Google’s real estate AI, or specialised property-tech solutions.
• Offer a human-AI hybrid service: AI handles admin tasks, allowing agents to spend more time providing face to face client service.
• Find niche markets AI can’t dominate: Focus on hyper-local expertise, unique property types, or personal branding that differentiates from automated, large-scale competitors.
• Adapt business models: Some SMEs may transition to Self-Employed models, leveraging AI-driven platforms instead of traditional employment structures.

Examples:

• Independent agencies adopting AI-powered virtual assistants to handle queries 24/7 without hiring extra staff.
• SMEs forming alliances with AI-driven marketplaces instead of competing head-on with large AI-powered corporations.

By staying lean and adaptive, these agencies can thrive alongside AI instead of being consumed by it.

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Acquired: Big, But Too Slow

(Large agencies that fail to move fast enough)

Size alone does not guarantee survival. Large agencies that fail to integrate AI quickly will find themselves outpaced by competitors or acquired by more agile players. Bureaucracy, internal resistance, and risk-averse leadership can lead to stagnation.

What Will Happen If They Don’t Adapt?

• They will be acquired by tech-driven competitors who move faster.
• Market share will shrink as clients shift to AI-driven platforms offering faster, cheaper, and better service.
• Their biggest cost – staff salaries – will become unsustainable as AI-powered agencies operate at lower costs with higher efficiency.

How They Can Avoid This Fate:

• Radical leadership change: The CEO must drive AI adoption aggressively, not just delegate it to an innovation team.
• AI-first investment strategy: Stop treating AI as a “side project” and make it central to operations.
• Reduce internal resistance: Train agents and staff to work with AI rather than resist it.

Without rapid adaptation, these agencies will be swallowed up by the faster-moving competition.

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Dead: The Reluctant & The Left Behind

(Small agencies that move too slowly)

Small agencies that neither embrace AI nor pivot quickly will become obsolete. These businesses typically rely on traditional methods, resist technological change, and assume AI is a distant problem.

Warning Signs of an Agency in Trouble:

• Clients expect fast, AI-driven service, but the agency still relies on manual, slow processes.
• No investment in automation leads to lower profit margins and higher admin costs.
• Agents spend too much time on routine tasks rather than high-value activities like client relationships and negotiations.
• Younger, tech-savvy competitors take market share by offering AI-powered self-service property searches, automated viewing scheduling, and instant price analytics.

How to Escape This Quadrant:

• Embrace AI before it’s too late. Start small – use AI for email follow-ups, chatbot lead generation, or simple automation tasks.
• Find a niche. Competing on the same level as AI-driven corporate agencies is a losing battle. Offer human-focused services AI can’t replace.
• Merge with a faster-moving firm. Collaboration or partnerships with more agile agencies could be the only lifeline.

The bottom line? Inaction is fatal.

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Conclusion: Choose Your Quadrant Wisely

AI is not just another tech trend; it’s an existential shift in the estate agency industry. Whether a business wins, collaborates, gets acquired, or dies depends on how it balances scale and decision-making speed.

Large agencies that move fast will dominate. Small agencies that move fast will carve out successful niches. But agencies of any size that move too slowly will either be acquired or simply cease to exist. I suspect that ultimately we will see new competitors coming in to become the dominant parties of the next phase of home moving. They have the advantage of a blank bit of paper but if the existing businesses of all scales adapt then there is no doubt they have the advantage of data which is the key fuel that AI needs to be effective.